Why the Sudden Change? A theory about Ron Paul’s recent good fortune with the media

For months and months, Ron Paul supporters have been loudly voicing complaints that the Texas Congressman has been shunned by the media, ignored in debates, and slandered in his positions.  It got bad enough for Jon Stewart to do a now famous piece on The Daily Show. He even followed it up with an interview of Dr. Paul.  

And, just a couple of weeks ago, the suspicion and outrage of Paul supporters were proven justified.  The Pew Research Center studied media coverage of the GOP candidates from May to early October.  Here’s a bit of what they found:

During previous debates, Ron Paul was given a fraction of the time allotted to other candidates; a mere 18 minutes, 47 seconds over three debates.

By far the worst offense was the recent CBS debacle, in which the moderators gave Paul a mere 89 seconds in the televised hour of the debate!

Since then, however, things have begun to change.  A Rasmussen poll, released early this week, found Ron Paul tied for first place in Iowa and CBS News had to report it.  Video was also unveiled by the Daily Caller, showing a CBS cameraman shoving a female reporter and being called out on it by Ron Paul himself.  It’s been a humbling week for CBS.

But they are not the only ones experiencing a strange Ron Paul-related swing in coverage.  Consider a small sampling of headlines from the past week alone:

1. “Niche Voters Giving Paul Momentum in Iowa Polls” – New York Times (November 18)

2. “Zogby: GOP voters ‘don’t like the dog food,’ turn Ron Paul into early-state contender” – Daily Caller, featured by Yahoo! News (November 18)

3. Fox News 19 in Cincinnati also had a “Reality Check” piece that fairly and accurately presented Ron Paul’s viewpoints and even denounced the biased media coverage he has received.  The feature, by co-anchor Ben Swann, also took place earlier this week.  Swann has since become a rock star to Paul supporters, garnering well over 3000 new fans on Facebook, on which site he also became the focus of a new page – “Ben Swann for Press Secretary 2012” (which already has hundreds of fans).

4. “Ron Paul Gets Screwed” – Politico (November 16)

5. “Ron Paul Can Win on Arithmetic, Not Just Philosophy” – Huffington Post (November 18).  If you read no other article linked here, read this one.  Amazing, smart coverage by Robin Koerner.

6. “GOP Outsider Ron Paul Gaining Traction in Iowa” – Associated Press, also featured on Yahoo! News (November 18)

7. “Ron Paul in 3rd, Mitt Romney loses his edge in New Hampshire Journal poll” – The State Column (November 18).  There have been previous headlines where Paul was left out completely or skipped over.

8. Jon Stewart even had another recent bit about Ron Paul on November 17^th in which he asked when Ron Paul would get his due attention.  This, in my opinion, is one of the funniest monologues I’ve seen in a while.  DailyPaul.com covered the story.

9. “Ron Paul is the Texan riding high in the Republican polls now” – Star-Telegram (November 17)

10. “Looks Like Ron Paul Will Be Ignored Again in the Next Debate” – The Atlantic Wire, featured on Yahoo! News (November 17).  Like the Politico article mentioned above, this one proactively attacks the lopsided debate coverage expected to be given to Paul in the next debate.

11. Even Fox News recently jumped in to admit that Ron Paul has been shortchanged in debate time.  They have been one of the worst offenders, particularly on their evening “news” programs; now forced to bring some of the bias to light.

Why the sudden change in tone and amount of coverage?  How did Ron Paul’s poll numbers so dramatically shift?  Why is the once hostile media now turning kind eyes and words to Dr. Paul?

There are a couple of possibilities.  The first is that the media bias has backfired.  The more they ignored him, the more people wondered, “Why the bias?  What’s so different about Ron Paul?”  Such blowback is quite possible.  A lot of Americans still do not like being told what to think and they despise the idea of the media picking a candidate for them.

Another possibility, while difficult to prove, is intriguing to me: What if Paul was always a front-runner?  Public distrust of the media is already quite high, so as the Iowa caucus draws near and the media sees that their blackout is not working, what are their choices?  They can keep up the ruse, hoping Paul loses as badly as they have predicted – a risky move given the hammering they would receive in public opinion.

Or, they can slowly reveal a “surge” for Ron Paul and save face when he wins or places much higher than they claimed possible.  This would require eating some crow, but the race has been fraught with flash-in-the-pan candidates, so it may just work.

The fallout from a continued blackout would bring with it long-term ruination of the media’s power, particularly if followed by Paul victories in early primary/caucus states.  Ignoring, maligning, mocking, and disregarding a candidate, only to find that Americans love him more?  Now, that would drastically alter the mainstream media’s ability to sway public opinion and keep the masses enslaved to the message of the State (the mainstream media, of course, functions largely as the State’s propaganda wing).

If they are to maintain any long-term power and influence, they must adapt.  The blackout is backfiring and the revolution is growing.  What now?  For now, they must admit what many Paul supporters have suspected for a while – the wave of Paul support is massive and it is threatening to drown the establishment.  But, as the days go on, look for them to return to the tactics used against other candidates.  The mainstream media will do their best to dig up dirt on Ron Paul, they will step up attacks on his foreign policy, and they will work to poke holes in his support.

As a Ron Paul supporter, I am happy with the recent turn in the mainstream media’s coverage of him.  Regardless of what fuels it, I rejoice in knowing that they have not hindered the revolution; in fact, they may have provided fuel for the fire.  But, we must remember that the media, like the ocean and kindergarteners, moves quickly – you always have to keep your eyes on them.